Speculate to Accumulate

We love to speculate on here and so I am going to do exactly that by dissecting the 6 episode synopses that have been released so far. There are potential spoilers in the episode synopses. I may or may not get some ideas right and more than likely I will be wide of the mark, but that is a risk I’m willing to take.

All definitions from ‘Investopedia.com’

“Insider trading” is defined as ‘the trading of stock or securities by individuals with access to non-public information.’

I think it could be safe to assume that we may see many an “insider” joke from the writers over the season.

From recent trailers and pictures (I’m looking at you, Damianista), it appears that Bobby’s wife calls him “Axe” and it may in fact be his nickname going forward. It is the perfect name for him as:-

“Axe” is defined as ‘the interest that a person or trader shows in buying or selling a financial security’.

Billions hasn’t even officially started yet and the writers are laughing at us and have been for quite a while!

Breaking it down “the term ‘axe’ may be derived from the phrase ‘axe to grind’ which means to possess an ulterior motive or selfish aim.”

For my part, I would put Bobby in the ulterior motive category rather than the selfish aim category…though I suppose you could argue that is semantics.

Episode 1, the Pilot

Chuck Rhoades, the powerful U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, is tipped to a case of insider trading with links to Axe Capital and the billionaire hedge fund king Bobby “Axe” Axelrod.

This sets Chuck on a collision course with one of the most powerful men on Wall Street. While it could be a career-defining case for Chuck, he must tread carefully, because his wife, Wendy Rhoades, is the in-house performance coach at Axe Capital and Axe’s key confidante. But a costly purchase by Axe gives Chuck the opening he needs, setting off a cat and mouse game where the stakes are high and intensely personal.

The line that stands out most to me is “setting off a cat and mouse game where the stakes are high and intensely personal” in regards to Bobby and Chuck. We have been told that Chuck and Bobby are rarely in scenes together. Thus their game is played via reverberations around the people closest to them. If their contact is minimal and, presumably, contact between them before we meet them was minimal to non-existent, this begs the question of why ‘the game’ is intensely personal. Fair enough that, from what we see in the trailers Chuck is a very motivated and ambitious Attorney and it is easy to imagine that the smug, arrogant Alpha male Bobby Axelrod with his rebellious attitude to authority could get under Chuck’s skin without trying too hard…even though I’m sure he will.

However, the language is suggesting something deeper than just a scoresheet of 81-0 or 81-1. It says ‘intensely personal’. Personal to both men is Wendy Rhoades. It is probably fair to say that she will have sway with both men. The trailers give us snapshots and little indicators of how our characters are feeling at a few seconds in time. In one of the very first trailers released for Billions, we see Wendy venting her frustrations at Chuck, clearly feeling that he does not see her work as important as his. This is contrasted in a later trailer where she is talking to Bobby who appears to be listening to what she is saying and taking on board her words.

Episode 2, Naming Rights

“Axe installs rigorous compliance measures to gird the company against the investigation by Chuck and the US Attorney’s office. When Wendy questions Axe’s methods, he compels her to prove her loyalty to the firm. Chuck’s investigation is temporarily derailed when he has to divert resources to a case against an Axe rival, billionaire Steven Birch. Axe’s black bag man and fixer, Hall, develops a mole inside the US Attorney’s office, while Axe makes an aggressive move under the guise of a charitable contribution to the symphony in order to settle an old score.”

The title of episode two interests me as much the synopsis itself. Episode two is called ‘Naming Rights’. It has become very common for companies to plaster their names all over sports stadiums, paying Millions over a period of 5 years or more to do so. What I am wondering here is whether the Naming Rights refers to the purchase Bobby made in the Pilot, or the rival of Bobby’s (mentioned above in the synopsis) making a purchase.

That Bobby takes steps to close ranks and protect his company from Chuck is no surprise. What is questionable here is his need for Wendy to prove her loyalty. Surely by now he must know whether or not she is trustworthy. Given that she has been with him a long time ‘compelling’ her to prove her loyalty is a risk. We see from her lack of patience with Chuck during the trailers that pressuring her is probably not wise. What I take from the way the synopsis is worded is that Wendy does indeed follow through which is interesting in itself i.e. she either is not insulted by the need or overcomes it and does so because she values her relationship with Bobby and of course the work she does.

Episode 3, YumTime

It seems that things heat up a bit in YumTime,

Chuck discovers that while he pursued Steven Birch, the rival Eastern District has made inroads in the Axe case and that he needs to get it back. Chuck horse-trades to regain control of a key witness, Pete Decker, a hedge fund manager with ties to Axelrod. At the same time, Axe makes an activist play for YumTime, a family owned bakery corporation. This move reverberates back to Chuck by way of a very personal connection between his father and YumTime. Wendy is thrown into a moral dilemma when she discovers via a confidential session that one of the few female Portfolio Managers at Axe Capital is going to have her career sabotaged. And Lara Axelrod tries to protect Axe’s reputation from a potentially damaging “tell all” book.

What is most interesting about this synopsis is that it alerts us to more players in the game. Naming Rights introduces a rival of Bobby’s whose dealings actually drag Chuck’s attention away from Bobby. Here, we are introduced to a rival of Chuck’s from whom he wishes to take back control of the case against Bobby. We also see development in the ‘personal stakes’ as it turns out ‘YumTime’  has links to Chuck’s father. That cannot be by accident.

It is hard to imagine much going on at Axe capital that Bobby is (a) not aware of; and (b) has not approved. So, is this confidential session with an employee who lets it slip that a female portfolio manager is about to be sabotaged, or is it a meeting Bobby is holding which Wendy is sitting in on?

Anyone else thinks that Lara ‘trying’ to protect Bobby sounds very ominous?

Episode 4, Short Squeeze

After getting one of his Portfolio Managers out of trouble with the police, Axe takes a spontaneous trip to see Metallica in concert with his childhood friends. While there, he meets a free spirited young woman who makes him face the limits of his own freedom. He also must fend off a short squeeze–an attack on one of his important holdings–led by Chuck’s father. Back in New York, Chuck has an epic day-long proffer session with Pete Decker, learning important facts about the inner workings of Axe Capital. But Chuck must also take action against his own father for his stock manipulation. Axe reckons with a cold betrayal by one of his old friends, and upon his return, Axe makes a momentous decision about the direction of his firm.

Short Squeeze (full definition) is an issue if you are a short seller and the stock suddenly has a positive turnaround in position.

This is a very interesting synopsis with some contrasts in character. Bobby, it seems, will flit from his current life to his old one with old friends as they go rock to Metallica.

Meanwhile Chuck’s father is causing havoc for Bobby and Chuck.

Meanwhile someone is telling all about the inner workings of Axe Capital to Chuck.

Meanwhile Chuck is taking action against his father.

The theme for this episode appears to be loyalty (or apparent lack of it) and I find it intriguing it takes place in the episode in which Bobby is with the friends of his youth. Loyalty matters to everyone, but those ‘from the street’ take it particularly seriously.

This is directly contrasted by Chuck who goes looking for betrayal and depending on your point of view perhaps indulges in it. His father has been aggressively manipulating the stock market and I assume is behind the short squeeze of the episode title which causes Bobby trouble. Chuck obviously feels his father has overstepped the mark and he has to do something about it. Not to would suggest complicity in trying to sabotage Axe Capital. I reckon though that, regardless of Chuck taking action against his father and having nothing to do with his father’s actions, any very experienced lawyer could cast doubt over the issue and muddy the waters in any future case against Axe Capital.

Episode 5, the Good Life

Axe orders his traders to unload their positions, and he unceremoniously disappears from Axe Capital, plunging the firm into chaos. As Axe questions his life choices and plans a trip on his new yacht, Wags and Wendy struggle to maintain order and morale. In response to Axe’s disappearance Chuck intensifies his investigation, which leads him to a farm in Iowa, where he discovers a key witness to a questionable trade. Armed with the damning evidence, Chuck sends the FBI into Axe Capital to make a surprising arrest.

My first reaction on reading this was one of surprise. What do you mean Bobby walks away? Now, I’m thinking that Bobby has an ulterior motive in ordering everyone to unload their positions and deciding to go off on a jaunt to “question his life choices”. Ordering everyone at the same time, regardless of what type of stock they are in charge of, to unload their positions? He is up to something. The head man just waltzing off and leaving the responsibility to someone else? I don’t think so.

It seems his absence will test Wendy and Wags which could be part of an ulterior motive Bobby has. You have to imagine that Bobby is perfectly well aware that Chuck would intensify his investigation in his absence. Damian can bring depth of emotion to any character and draw you in as they take a good look at themselves, but I’m not entirely convinced, in this instance, that Bobby is off questioning his life choices on his new yacht to be honest.

I am also curious what is growing in this farm. Crops can be quite important.

Episode 6, the Deal

The repercussions of the raid on Axe Capital ripple outward. Axe is spoiling for a fight, and plans a scorched-earth defense against this very public attack on his company—threatening his relationship with Wendy in the process. Chuck’s interrogation of Dollar Bill does not go as planned, and political pressure mounts for Chuck to recuse himself in the face of a protracted legal battle. Wendy, caught in the middle, engages in deft shuttle diplomacy to facilitate a deal in the best interests of both men. But everything hinges on a fraught face-to-face meeting between Chuck and Axe to finalize the agreement.

This Trailer shows Wendy talking to Bobby and she says

Wendy:          “Open War isn’t good”

Bobby:            “For who?”

Wendy:          “Anyone”

So, are we doing this war under the table, behind the curtains…in bed? Ahem. The synopses says ‘Axe is spoiling for a fight’. His agitated stance while speaking to Wendy emphasises that. He is using the chair he is holding on to as a defence mechanism behind which he is temporarily taking stock (pardon the pun). Despite his agitation showing in the way he is standing and in the way he speaks to Wendy, he is also clearly listening to what she is saying.

‘The scorched earth defence’ is defined as making one’s company unattractive to a perceived attempted hostile takeover. In our case how does Bobby make Axe capital appear unattractive to the US Attorney i.e. not worth the hassle of legal battles? Whatever he does he risks his relationship with Wendy which is certainly not good for him.

You just know that a face-to-face meeting with Chuck will include an F U in there somewhere.

This episode is called ‘the Deal’ and Wendy tries to negotiate a deal between Bobby and Chuck. If the deal manages to see out episode 6 and lasts for most of 7, Wendy will have done incredibly well because I can’t see it lasting long at all, if it ever actually happens. We are at episode 6 not episode 12 and I am happy to predict that the deal will disintegrate as fast as it appeared.

Feel free to speculate on whose ego is the cause of the disintegration and more, with us.